S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after at least six months of holding rates steady, U.S. stocks have often posted…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation…
China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock…
U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship…
S&P 500 Performance After 90-90 Days The NYSE “90/90 day” on Friday—when 90% of volume and stocks rose—is rare and bullish. Since 1980, such days often precede strong market gains, with the S&P 500 rising…
S&P 500 Return After the Fed Waits Between 5-12 Months to Cut Since 1970, whenever the Fed has waited between 5 and 12 months to cut rates, the US stock market has delivered positive returns…
S&P 500 Earnings Revision Breadth The S&P 500 earnings revision breadth soaring highlights broad-based optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings results, and upward revisions pushing the index to record levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – Spread of S&P 500 Minus S&P 500 Equal Weight The significant valuation gaps between the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 result from the high valuations and growth expectations of large companies, which emphasize…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward…
MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior.…
Gold – Global Central Bank Holdings Central bank gold demand cycles respond to global economic and political factors. Recently, demand has increased amid financial instability, currency trust concerns, inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical conflicts. Image: Goldman…