Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since 2023, reflecting heightened uncertainty and broader financial instability. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change…
The 15 Worst Q1 Returns for the S&P 500 and What Happened Next A weak Q1 for the S&P 500 often sets the tone for lackluster performance in the remaining quarters, with data showing a…
S&P 500 Bear Markets S&P 500 bear markets tied to recessions don’t end before the recession starts. Those without a recession are rare and usually short. Image: TS Lombard
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bull market secured… until it isn’t. In finance, the wise investor always expects the unexpected! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and…
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately…
Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long…
S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for…
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses.…