Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure,…

% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history…

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index and Moving Average Crossover Signal Using moving average crossovers-particularly on a weekly basis-can be a valuable tool for investors looking to manage risk in their equity portfolios. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 YTD Return The underperformance of the Magnificent Seven in 2025 signals a meaningful change in market dynamics, with investors rotating toward other sectors and a more balanced market leadership emerging. Image: Goldman Sachs…

S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies…

Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs anticipates a more diversified earnings landscape for the S&P 500, with the dominance of the Magnificent Seven tech giants moderating as other companies pick up the pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month There’s more positive news for bulls: Historically, the S&P 500 rarely peaks in February, and this year followed that trend. With the index currently just 3% shy of its…

Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 In the absence of recession, short-lived market drawdowns are often followed by strong recoveries, offering attractive returns to investors who stay…

S&P 500 Index and 200-Day Moving Average Regaining the 200-day moving average is a constructive technical signal for the S&P 500 index, as forward returns tend to be positive more often than not. Image: Bloomberg