S&P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS Citigroup strategists raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 points, up from 6,300, expecting that tax cuts introduced in July 2025 will counterbalance the negative impact of…
S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain strongly net long on S&P 500 futures, signaling a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank
Financials Group Positioning Financial positioning is still low, currently at the 34th percentile, which suggests room for further growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P.…
Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns,…
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Rising analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings reflects strong corporate results, positive surprises, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, all pointing to potential near-term…
Corporate America’s Announced Buybacks July’s record $166 billion in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1 trillion in 2025, reflecting solid corporate confidence and return-of-capital strategies.…
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation