Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.15% YoY in November. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image:…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.12% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500…
S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls…
Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500 The Shiller CAPE has pushed above 40, approaching the 44-times peak seen at the height of the dot-com frenzy. Such rich valuations have often signaled markets…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a US recession within the next 12 months is 19%, a level slightly…
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index With rates drifting lower and quantitative tightening in the rearview mirror, U.S. financial conditions are easing, creating a friendlier setting for growth across both households and firms. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Gold vs. 1970s Gold has been shining bright, but it’s nowhere near the late-1970s gold rush. Investors might want to keep an open mind. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to maintain economic leadership in 2026, projecting GDP growth of 2.5%, comfortably above consensus, as steady inflation and a resilient jobs market keep momentum going.…