Tech IPOs vs. Non-Tech IPOs Tech IPO shares have soared an average of 108% above their offering price. By comparison, non-tech IPOs have gained 49%, a solid return but significantly less than the surge seen…

S&P 500 Index and Percent of Members Above 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 nears its all-time high, but without improved breadth and broader sector participation, the market risks a correction. Rising indexes amid weak…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The current NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.41 indicates that active investment managers maintain robust confidence and significant exposure to U.S. equities. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index…

Number of Unique Names in Top 10 Ranking Since 2014 to Date Over the past decade, less than 20 companies have consistently ranked among the top 10 by market capitalization in both the U.S. and…

Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since January 2022, European banks have outperformed U.S. mega-cap tech stocks—a notable achievement considering the longstanding dominance of American tech giants in global markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S.…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Bulls have reason to smile: historically, July has been the best month in post-election years and over the past 20 years. This suggests there is further upside…

Performance – Value vs. Growth The U.S. market is experiencing outperformance in growth sectors driven by innovation and strong earnings, whereas value sectors dominate outside the U.S. due to slower earnings growth and differing economic…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months stands at 18%, just above its…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward Price-to-Earnings The S&P 500 is trading at 22 times expected earnings over the next year, 35% above its 20-year average. These elevated valuations are partly justified by expectations of strong…

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor…