Fiscal Impulses in Japan and the Eurozone Japan and the eurozone are expected to benefit from significant fiscal stimulus next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

China GDP Growth Over the Next Five Years China real GDP growth is expected to continue to decline in the coming years. Image: Danske Research

Trade War – S&P 500 Peaks and U.S. Trade Policy What is the likelihood of a trade deal between the U.S. and China? Past market peaks have been followed by major trade escalations. Image: Deutsche…

QE in 2020 and Central Banks (the Fed, ECB and BoJ) Central banks’ QE should support financial markets next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Starting Valuation Predicts Future Returns Based on the Shiller CAPE ratio, the chart suggests a 10-year compound annual growth rate of only 2% to 4% for the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Recessions – NBER Since 1850, this will be the first decade without a recession in the United States. Image: National Bureau of Economic Research

S&P 500 Volatility in 2020 Goldman Sachs economic model suggests volatility of 14.7 on average next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Conference Board Confidence Index of CEO vs. U.S. Real Business Investment The trade war has no winners and could curtail U.S. business investment further. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Dollar Cycles U.S. dollar cycles are persistent and are counted in years. In the absence of a recession in the U.S. in 2020, the strength of the U.S. dollar should continue for some time.…

Inequality – Intergenerational Earnings Elasticity and Gini Coefficient Chart suggesting that social mobility cannot be achieved without greater equality (R² = 0.5) Image: Financial Times

S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI EAFE Index Largely due to structural headwinds, international stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks significantly in this bull market, over the last ten years. It could continue next year as well.…