Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums The low U.S. equity risk premium reflects a market where investors earn little to no additional expected return for taking on the higher risk of stocks compared to bonds.…
Monthly Flow of G4 Central Bank Asset Purchases Global central banks are continuing to reduce their asset holdings at a robust pace, primarily through balance sheet runoff and measured non-reinvestment of maturing securities. Image: Deutsche…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June Historically, the U.S. stock market often weakens—and even posts negative returns—in the latter half of June. Could this time be different? Image: Carson Investment Research
CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Spot Gold Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is under the spotlight, with its price closely tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East as well as broader macroeconomic trends. Image: Bloomberg
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies continue to adopt a cautious stance, as equity positioning remains at the 24th percentile amid ongoing market uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and…
Average Post Election Year for S&P 500 In post-election years, the S&P 500 often experiences weakness in late June and early July, driven mainly by seasonal market behavior. Image: Carson Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Gold Commodity Trading Advisors have reduced their gold allocations but remain net long on the metal, indicating a tactical repositioning rather than a fundamental bearish shift. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks The slowdown in share buybacks during blackout periods reduces a key source of equity demand, which, in an overbought market, could worsen any weakness until buybacks resume in late July.…