ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in August stands at 48.7%, below the consensus forecast of 49.0%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This chart…
S&P 500 2026 Target Driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, Evercore ISI forecasts the S&P 500 will rise to 7,750 points by the end of 2026, marking a 20% gain from current levels. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Annualized 1-Month Volatility In this post-election year, the current period indicates increased volatility ahead for U.S. stocks, reinforcing the need for cautious risk management during this sensitive stage of the cycle. Image: Nautilus…
U.S. Fund Flows Since 2023, cash and bonds have attracted substantial inflows, driven by central bank policy shifts, investor preferences for income and safety, and broader macroeconomic factors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Seasonality – Monthly Median Return on Global 10y+ Goverment Bonds Long-term government bonds globally face a challenging September due to seasonality and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, reinforcing historical trends of September being their…
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-minus-bear spread, indicating strong pessimism among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term, is widely seen as a contrarian bullish…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months remains at 18%, slightly above…
S&P 500 Monthly Rank Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects that U.S. real GDP will expand at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3 2025, suggesting steady and robust economic growth. Image: Federal…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks stands at the 42nd percentile, indicating potential for further growth and increased investor interest. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation