Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI…
Is the U.S. Expansion Waning? Despite strong US GDP growth in April 2019, this chart shows that U.S. growth is not bouncing back in this late business cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Mean Probability That U.S. Stock Prices Will Be Higher One Year From Now – Survey of Consumer Expectations – The mean probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now is 41.03% as…
Number of Stocks Splits by S&P 500 Companies Since 1990 Since 1990, the number of stock splits by S&P 500 companies has virtually disappeared. Image: The Wall Street Journal
China’s Belt and Road Initiative The Belt and Road Initiative is a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. This chart shows the infrastructure projects. Image: Reuters
FED, ECB & BoJ Balance Sheets as Percent of GDP (BoJ leading 10 years) Is this chart the “Japanification” of the world? Image: In Gold We Trust-Report
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Average S&P 500 Index Returns An interesting chart showing the ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 Index forward 12-month return.Low returns when the ISM Manufacturing Index is above 60 and high…
Is Wall Street Overestimating Fed Rate Cut Odds? For the first time, the probability of a rate cut is above 80%, and the probability of a rate hike is 0%. Image: Bloomberg
Stages of the Business Cycle as of April 30, 2019 Although global growth remains positive, this chart suggests that most major economies are entering the late business cycle phase. Image: Fidelity Investments
AAII Survey Bullish Votes, Sentix Bullish Votes US Equities, vs. S&P 500 since 2017 Low AAII Sentiment Survey bullish votes of 24.71%, and low Sentix bullish votes for US equities of 12.84%, have corresponded with…
Should Investors Be Concerned About Rising Oil Prices? Because the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient, it helps to contain oil prices in the long-term. Cheap oil is good for global economic growth, business and consumers. Image:…