U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate Breakeven rates, which reflect the market’s inflation expectations, suggest that the fight against rising prices is far from over and will likely continue in the foreseeable future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth…
Fed Balance Sheet The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to reduce bank reserves. This reduction may lead to higher inflation, increased real yields, and a steeper yield curve. Image: TS Lombard
Post-Election Day S&P 500 Returns While investors have responded positively to the election results, the true effects of new policies remain uncertain. The market’s robust performance is based on expectations, not realized economic outcomes. Image:…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500’s 1.47% increase last week hasn’t dampened bears’ endless pessimism. Meanwhile, bulls are too busy celebrating a 4.11% year-to-date gain, including dividends! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Europe Equity Fund Flows European equity funds have experienced a surge in inflows, reaching a two-year high and indicating a notable shift in market sentiment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share to hit $271 in 2025 and $303 in 2026, indicating a bullish market outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Instances When S&P 500 Longer-Term Rally Stalls Historically, periods of strong annual stock gains of over 20% followed by short-term flat performance have often led to weaker returns in the following 3 to 6 months.…
Share of Median S&P 500 Stock’s Trailing 6-Month Return Explained by Micro Factors 74% of the median S&P 500 stock’s trailing 6-month return can be explained by micro factors, which is significantly above the long-term…
AAII – U.S. Retail Investors Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash High equity allocations and low cash positions don’t always mean a market reversal is near. However, they suggest that much of the market’s potential…
S&P 500 3% YTD or More on Valentine’s Day Valentine’s Day brings good news for bulls: When the S&P 500 is up 3% YTD or more on February 14th, it has historically continued to rise…
S&P 500 Aggregate EPS Surprise Corporate America has once again demonstrated its ability to sustain profit margins, with a strong Q4 2024 earnings season surpassing expectations by a significant margin. Image: Morgan Stanley Research