DXY U.S. Dollar Index vs. Nasdaq Composite / MSCI World Value Over the past two years, U.S. growth stocks—known for their sensitivity to currency fluctuations—have exhibited a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Performance by January Return Bulls have reason to smile: Since 1950, when January has shown positive returns, the S&P 500 has ended the year positively 89% of the time, with an average annual gain of 19%. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate For over two years, the S&P 500 has maintained a consistent trend channel, indicating a strong market despite concerns of potential overvaluation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuation vs. History Compared to historical standards, most S&P 500 sector P/E valuations are elevated, raising concerns about potential market overvaluation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Why are bears reluctant to invest in U.S. stocks? They view the bull market as nothing more than fake news—and they can’t bear the idea of losing their cherished money (or honey)! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
Valuation – Nasdaq 100 Fwd P/E Tech stocks are priced at a premium, with forward valuations significantly above their 10-year average. This rich valuation assumes technology companies will maintain their earnings leadership. Image: Bloomberg
Correlation Between Top 10 and S&P 500 While the concentration of large-cap stocks in the U.S. equity market is a topic of discussion, the evidence suggests that its impact on market behavior is not as alarming as some might believe. Image: S&P Dow Jones Indices
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Valuation – Shiller’s Cyclically-Adjusted Price-To-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio With the Shiller P/E ratio indicating an unusually high valuation for the U.S. stock market compared to the start of previous presidential terms, investors may need to moderate their expectations for future returns. Image: The Wall Street Journal
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500 rose 1.74% this week, maintaining its positive trajectory for January and giving bulls a reason to throw a party, while bears are contemplating a career change to avoid the market madness! Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) The euro has shown strength this week, but caution is warranted. Potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under Trump and ongoing economic disparities continue to give the dollar an edge. Image: Bloomberg