U.S. Dollar – Overall Weighted Valuations Ranked The U.S. dollar is considered the second most overvalued liquid currency globally, based on three valuation metrics: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER). Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day – U.S. Presidential Election 2024 – Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Returns When Up >17.5% After the First 10 Months of Year Historically, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 17.5% year-to-date going into November, the final two months of the year have never seen a decline, with an average gain of 6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with U.S. real interest rates, as investors often shift their holdings between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of owning the precious metal. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times, with a median gain of 17.2% one year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around U.S. Election Date Following the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market exhibited robust growth. Can investors expect a similar trend after the 2024 election? Image: Deutsche Bank
Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Equity Fund Flows Contrary to the usual caution observed in U.S. election years, 2024 has seen robust equity fund inflows, defying the typical pattern of investors waiting until after the elections. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation