10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep long-end yields from falling much further. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession risk over the next 12 months is meaningfully above “business as usual,” but not at levels typically seen right on the eve of a downturn. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years are rarely smooth sailing for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has on average tumbled 17.5% from its highs, the sharpest swoon in the four-year presidential cycle. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle In 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 danced to the beat of the four-year election cycle. Is 2026 when the music changes? Image: Nautilus Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply U.S. market capitalization has surged since late 2022, lifting valuations far beyond what M2 growth alone can explain. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden jump in interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The dominant macro theme for 2026 is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have laid the groundwork for renewed economic momentum worldwide. Image: Topdown Charts
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Traders are sticking to expectations for two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, even as Fed projections reveal deep splits. The easing drive has lost some steam, but the cycle isn’t done yet. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns – U.S. Presidents That Made It Six Years In Office There’s fresh fuel for the 2026 bulls: the sixth year of a presidency has been pure upside for U.S. stocks, with average gains close to 21%. Enjoy the New Year! 🥳🎉 Image: Carson Investment Research
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record Global debt keeps climbing, set to breach $350 trillion this year. A reminder that fiscal discipline and global coordination remain crucial to preventing financial shocks. Image: International Monetary Fund
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar slid through 2025, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. The weaker greenback is easing pressure on emerging‑market borrowers with dollar debt and lifting dollar‑denominated commodities. Image: Bloomberg