Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally The age-old adage “cash is king” looks increasingly dated. Non-bank investors have slashed their cash holdings to the lowest levels since at least 1999, leaving financial markets more exposed to shocks. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Earnings Unlike some past bull runs, this year’s rally in U.S. stocks has been driven more by solid earnings growth than by rising valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope for momentum into the fourth quarter. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 49.1 in September, just above expectations of 49.0, but still pointing to contraction across the factory sector. This chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. Click the…
Approximate Lifespan of Historical Bubbles, from Run-Up to Peak Financial bubbles rarely pop overnight. They typically build for years, fueled by speculative mania, until late-arriving investors rush in at the top—only to see their gains wiped out when the bubble bursts. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Government Shutdowns vs. the S&P 500 For all the political drama, U.S. markets have historically treated government shutdowns as little more than noise, with brief volatility giving way to quick rebounds. Image: Bloomberg
Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 P/E Ratio and Fed Chair Warnings on Stock Valuations Despite Powell acknowledging that U.S. equity prices look stretched, history suggests valuations alone rarely halt a rally—at least not in the short run. Image: Bloomberg
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) The S&P 500 is still enjoying positive earnings sentiment, but momentum has cooled amid concerns over demand, margins and broader economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Right now, the 14-week RSI is nearing 70. When it previously climbed above 80, the S&P 500 saw an average 27% decline with an RSI lead time of 37 weeks. In other words, bull markets can stay overbought far longer than many expect. Image: Real Investment Advice