Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, followed by two further cuts of the same magnitude in Q1 2026, reducing the federal funds rate to a neutral level of 3.625%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Rising analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings reflects strong corporate results, positive surprises, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, all pointing to potential near-term market gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts The market currently prices in a greater likelihood of Fed rate cuts than suggested by the Summary of Economic Projections, especially under Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, with a terminal rate expected modestly above 3% in 2027. Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Stoxx Europe 600 The April 2025 correction caused short-term volatility and uncertainty but created a buying opportunity in U.S. growth and tech stocks, resetting market sentiment and driving a strong rally. Image: Bloomberg
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies This quarter’s earnings season demonstrates continued resilience in corporate profitability. 63% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 earnings estimates by at least 1 stdev., while 10% have missed by at least 1 stdev.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The 2009 S&P 500 Bull Market Compared With This One Since October 2022, the current S&P 500 bull market has mirrored early patterns of the 2009–2020 bull market, experiencing a mid-cycle correction typical of its normal progression. Image: Carson Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex by Company The current AI-driven capital expenditure boom among U.S. hyperscalers represents a once-in-a-generation shift in infrastructure investment, with spending projected to reach $497 billion in 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Earnings growth for the S&P 500 accelerated from 8.7% in Q1 to 9.9% in Q2. While the overall trend indicates robust earnings growth, the gains are unevenly distributed across sectors and individual companies within the index. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials & Energy) The consensus outlook predicts that S&P 500 profit margins will expand through 2026, fueled by solid earnings growth and favorable economic conditions, and will exceed previous record levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Corporate America’s Announced Buybacks July’s record $166 billion in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1 trillion in 2025, reflecting solid corporate confidence and return-of-capital strategies. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent portfolio management. Image: J.P. Morgan