S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at the Middle of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has been up more than 10% at the middle of the year, the full year has been positive 100% of the time with a median gain of 26.4%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Where Do You See S&P 500 at Year End? Just 4.7% of JPM clients hold high expectations for the S&P 500 index, believing that it will surpass 6,000 by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant level of optimism regarding the future performance of the stock market. Image: J.P. Morgan
Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth The widening gap between U.S. home prices and wage growth has significant implications for housing affordability and economic inequality, making it harder for lower-income individuals and families to afford homes. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment for U.S. consumers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market and makes stocks more vulnerable to negative news and price declines. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Index Weight of 5 Largest Companies in Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 index is heavily concentrated in a few large tech companies. While this reflects the strength and innovation of these tech giants, it also introduces risks if sentiment shifts or if regulatory scrutiny increases. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hedge Funds – Net Buys Hedge funds continue to hit the sell button, resulting in significant outflows over the past 3 months. Image: BofA Securities
Flows by Year into Active vs. Passive Funds Passive funds are growing in popularity as investors prioritize lower fees, potential tax advantages, and doubt active fund managers’ ability to consistently outperform the market. As a result, active funds are facing capital outflows. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 – Factor Signal for Market Peaks Based on Quality, Momentum, and Valuation The combination of quality and momentum factors outperforming vs. history, along with elevated valuations, could signal that the market is approaching a peak, prompting investors to adjust their portfolios accordingly. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy