Category: Blog

Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are cautiously optimistic, but not exuberant or fearful. Image: TS Lombard

Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Higher growth expectations raise bond yields because investors demand greater compensation for potential inflation and uncertainty about future interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 EPS Median stock EPS growth is expected to remain robust and improve in the second half of 2025, though the pace of growth may be somewhat slower than the strong gains seen earlier in the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Price Target for 2025 Citing diminished tariff effects and a resilient U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank has increased its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,550, up from 6,150. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Gold Price Seasonality June has been a challenging month for gold investors over the past five decades, delivering the lowest hit rate and the second-worst overall performance. Image: Topdown Charts

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5–3.75%, in line with their elevated neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) The Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services sectors have been the primary sources of stock buyback announcements in the US market over the past three months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Performance – % of S&P 500 Stocks Outperforming the Benchmark by Year Market leadership has broadened in 2025. Whereas a handful of large tech companies dominated in 2023 and 2024, more than half of S&P 500 stocks are now outperforming the index. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Index The market’s ongoing volatility is a direct response to the unpredictable cycle of tariff announcements, pauses, and retaliations, with sentiment swinging between hope for de-escalation and fear of economic damage. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Average Return After a Day Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has shown impressive resilience. On average, it has rebounded by 0.22% the day after a daily decline, highlighting the market’s ability to recover from setbacks. Image: Carson Investment Research

Margin Debt and MoM Change The recent three-month, $90 billion decline in margin debt is not characteristic of what is typically observed at market tops, where margin debt tends to rise or peak amid speculative excess. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC