S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Earnings growth for the S&P 500 accelerated from 8.7% in Q1 to 9.9% in Q2. While the overall trend indicates robust earnings growth, the gains are unevenly distributed across sectors and individual companies within the index. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials & Energy) The consensus outlook predicts that S&P 500 profit margins will expand through 2026, fueled by solid earnings growth and favorable economic conditions, and will exceed previous record levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Corporate America’s Announced Buybacks July’s record $166 billion in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1 trillion in 2025, reflecting solid corporate confidence and return-of-capital strategies. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent portfolio management. Image: J.P. Morgan
Discretionary Investor Positioning Discretionary investors have lowered their equity exposure to the 30th percentile, reflecting cautiousness amid less favorable economic indicators and increased market uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. This cautious optimism is driven by easing trade barriers and improved financial conditions but remains tempered by persistent downside risks and global uncertainties. Image: International Monetary Fund
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Company Insider Buy-Sell Ratio Insider buying has recently dried up, with insider purchases falling behind insider sales by the most since July 2024—this may reflect either executive caution or opportunistic profit-taking. Image: Bloomberg
Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to previous quarters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Trend Channel Deutsche Bank lifted its S&P 500 year-end 2025 forecast to 7,000 from 6,550, projecting an 8% increase on the back of solid earnings, resilient equity demand, and sustained buybacks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations The reported 9% EPS growth for 2Q 2025 is substantially higher than previous consensus expectations of roughly 4%, reflecting better-than-anticipated earnings results this quarter so far. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research