Seasonality – NASDAQ Cycle Composite September is often a weaker month for the NASDAQ, but the Fed’s non-recessionary rate cuts are helping to counter that trend, fueling momentum and boosting investor confidence. Image: Ned Davis Research
Financial Gold Models Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast to an average of $4,000 per ounce for 2026, driven by strong central bank buying, a weakening U.S. dollar, expected Fed rate cuts, and ongoing global uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank
Announced Share Repurchases (U.S. Buybacks) The surge in S&P 500 buybacks this year, backed by solid earnings, liquidity, and targeted capital allocation, marks a pivotal year for shareholder value and market gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity and Quantitative Strategy
Gold Annual Returns Up 40% this year, gold is enjoying its strongest rally since 1979’s 133% surge. But so far, the rise has stirred far less hysteria than in earlier eras, leaving room for further gains in the near to medium term. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations When consumers feel confident about future stock prices, current valuations rise because investors expect continued growth and are willing to pay more today in anticipation of future rewards. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Around First Cut Following Easing Cycle Pauses of Six Months or More Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after holding steady for at least six months, U.S. stocks often post strong gains over the following year—especially when the cuts reflect economic normalization rather than recession. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Cash Spending Relative to Cash Flows Many S&P 500 companies devote substantial cash flow to stock buybacks, a practice that benefits shareholders in the short term but sparks concerns about favoring short-term gains over long-term growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration $5.3 trillion in options notional value is set to expire today, marking the largest September expiration on record. This could spark increased market volatility as trading activity intensifies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
Buying U.S. Equity Securities In 2Q 2025, foreign investors boosted their holdings of U.S. equities, while U.S. households and hedge funds cut back amid market volatility and policy uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI vs. Nasdaq 100 The Fed cutting interest rates while stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing creates a bullish setup for equities, boosting investor optimism about future returns. Image: Bloomberg