S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed by gains over the next year every single time, averaging 21%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move, it tends to last. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sector ETF Flows Money is piling into tech. Since the S&P 500’s March 30 low, roughly $25 billion has flowed into tech sector ETFs, while non-tech sector ETFs have seen about $4 billion in combined outflows. Old habits die hard. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Number of U.S. IPOs 40 U.S. companies have gone public so far this year, while Goldman Sachs expects roughly 100 IPOs to raise about $160 billion in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility have kept issuance in check. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes to a consolidation, or a move back toward the average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index vs. 40-Week Moving Average The 40-week moving average offers a straightforward way to manage S&P 500 exposure. Add risk when the index trades above it. Trim risk when it falls below. Process matters more than panic. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After Nine Week Wins Streaks A 9-week win streak tends to have legs. In 9 out of 10 cases, the S&P 500 has moved higher in the next month, suggesting June could extend the run. Over the next year, gains showed up 8 times out of 10, with a median rise of…
Two-Month Change in the S&P 500 Since WWII Since WWII, two-month rallies of this magnitude in the S&P 500 have been rare, typically appearing either in the rebound from recessions such as the GFC and Covid-19, or just ahead of the 1987 crash. Image: Deutsche Bank
MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed uncertainty linger. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of bearish bets, and does not signal an imminent turn in the market. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to absorb such a large supply. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation