Category: Blog

Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank

Market Depth on 10-Year USTs and 10-Year Bund Futures Will market depth on 10Y USTs and 10Y Bund futures continue to improve? Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 High Beta Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth Rate Should investors consider underweighting high beta stocks in their portfolios? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Housing – New One Family Houses Sold Total NSA U.S. new home sales rose 7.2% in January, which was better than expected. Image: The Daily Shot

Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield Minus S&P 500 Dividend Yield Should investors favor U.S. T-bills over the S&P 500 dividend yield? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Performance – U.S. Outperformance vs. Global Ex-U.S. Outperformance Should U.S. investors favor international equities over U.S. equities? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

S&P 500 Trailing P/E + CPI YoY and Prior Market Bottoms Historically, U.S. stocks bottomed when the S&P 500 trailing P/E + CPI was below 20. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Liquidity – Market Depth of S&P 500 E-mini Futures U.S. equity market depth has been steadly improving. Image: J.P. Morgan

Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector U.S. GDP grew 2.7% in Q4 2022. The housing slump was a net drag on GDP, and it’s not over yet. Image: The Daily Shot

Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, hit a 14-year high. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Recession – Number of States with Increasing Activity The odds of a U.S. recession in 2023 appear high. Image: Deutsche Bank