Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Labor Market – Initial Claims The jump in U.S. jobless claims is raising fears of a potential recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
How Do You Believe the U.S. Debt Ceiling Will Be Resolved? JPM clients are confident that the U.S. debt ceiling issue will be resolved at the last minute. Image: J.P. Morgan
Fed – Months from Last Hike to First Fed Cut and from First Cut to U.S. Recession Historically, the median time from the last interest rate hike to the first cut is 4 months. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and the Small Caps vs. Large Caps Ratio The S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market. Image: BofA Global Research
Would You Rather Be Long or Short S&P 500 Volatility at the Moment? 73% of JPM clients prefer to be long S&P 500 volatility right now. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Returns After Last Rate Hike The U.S. 30-year Treasury tends to outperform in the three and six months following the last Fed rate hike. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Dollar Returns After Last Rate Hike In inflationary periods, the U.S. dollar tends to rise in the three and six months following the last Fed rate hike. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – Mega-Cap Tech Relative NTM P/E vs. Rest of S&P 500 The concentration of mega-cap tech stocks in the S&P 500 Index has raised concerns that the market is being pulled up by a handful of stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling 12-Month EPS Surprise vs. ISM PMI Are markets too optimistic? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Gold Returns After Last Rate Hike Should investors sell gold after the last Fed rate hike? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy