Philly Fed Future Nominal Orders vs. S&P 500 12-Months Forward EPS (Leading Indicator) A severe contraction in earnings growth should hurt U.S. stocks in 2023. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Price Based on EPS and P/E Scenario According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 Index could fall to 3150 in the event of a U.S. recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage of Stocks Outperforming the S&P 500 Index This year is a great market for stock pickers. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index How far will U.S. home prices fall as rates rise? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Energy Equities vs. U.S. Tech Sector Equities Should investors continue to overweight U.S. energy equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Credit U.S. consumer borrowing is growing fast as goods prices continue to increase. Image: The Daily Shot
Returns +/- One Year Around the Last Fed Hike Each Cycle How will the S&P 500 perform in 2023, once the Fed stops raising rates? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Inflation – CPI vs. M2 M2 growth tends to lead CPI by 16 months, suggesting lower U.S. inflation ahead. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Probabilities of the U.S. Economy Entering Recession in the Following Periods The probability of a U.S. recession in H1 2023 is rising. Image: Morgan Stanley
Flow Seasonality by Month Historically, December and January are the two strongest months for equity inflows. Image: BofA Securities
U.S. High Yield vs. Investment Grade Returns and Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Historically, the outperformance of high yield bonds relative to investment grade bonds has followed the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management