S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s end in the first year of a presidential cycle, December has never missed and kept the rally going with an…
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Drawdown Bitcoin was down more than 30% from its October peak. For most assets that would be a crash, but for Bitcoin it’s a familiar kind of turbulence, sharp yet within its usual volatility range. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late next year, a sign that liquidity is finally loosening again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 December Returns The S&P 500 lost ground last December, but two red Decembers in a row are rare. That track record may give bulls hope for a Santa Claus rally and a strong finish to the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold Positioning Rising long positions in gold over the past two weeks point to strengthening demand, a classic bullish sign that keeps the rally in play. Image: Bloomberg
Asset Class Flow The surge of capital into U.S. stock funds in 2025 was largely fueled by optimism around growth prospects, strong earnings, and heavy investments by tech and AI giants. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Monthly Gains Tracker Seven months of uninterrupted gains in the S&P 500 mark a rare streak, one that often cools around this stage. Even so, history tends to favor the bulls over the next year, just with a bumpier ride. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Fed easing sounds bullish, but not when growth cracks. In recessions, U.S. stocks have often fallen despite cheaper money. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts Traders are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point move and just a 23% likelihood of another cut in January 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank