U.S. ISM Manufacturing vs. Philadelphia Fed Leading-Lagging Parts – Leading Indicator Philadelphia Fed leading vs. lagging variables tend to lead U.S. ISM Manufacturing by 10 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Major Central Bank Assets vs. S&P 500 Index The expansion of central bank balance sheets tends to push the S&P 500 Index higher. Is the sky the limit? Image: Lohman Econometrics
Inflation – CAPE Valuation vs. CPI Historically, valuations for the S&P 500 have been highest when CPI is between 1% to 4%. Image: Real Investment Advice
Survey – Do You Think Oil Will Exceed $100 in the Next Year? 49% of investors think oil will not exceed $100 in the next year. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 vs. Peaks in Real Profit Margins When will the S&P 500 fall? Keep an eye on real profit margins. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – 100 Days in “Consolidation” YTD Could a risk-on rally lead the S&P 500 to 4,800 by the end of the year? Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Month on Month Change in FMS Investor Positioning Is inflation not going away? FMS investors poured into inflation assets. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 Super Sectors Will U.S. cyclicals continue to outperform tech stocks as rates rise? Image: Topdown Charts
Share of Monthly Consumer Payments in Cash in the U.S. The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the decline in cash payments in the United States. Image: Alpine Macro
Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio Should investors take a cautious approach to U.S. equities as the S&P 500’s cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio remains elevated? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Estimated Monthly Daily Retail Buy – Sell $ Flow Will retail investors remain committed to buying stocks, especially on down days? Image: Morgan Stanley Quantitative and Derivative Strategies