Market Capitalization of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock U.S. stocks are more top-heavy than at any point in nearly a century, with mega-cap tech driving the charge. The dominance is juicing index gains—but also flashing warnings on risk and concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to multi-year highs, but as macro conditions shift and the crypto market matures, its link to traditional equities could start to loosen. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 vs. Gold and S&P 500 vs. Bonds (Total Return) U.S. stocks look pricey next to bonds—but measured against gold, it’s not mania, it’s money insurance. Investors are hedging debasement and inflation, not chasing a 2000-style bubble. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
200-Day Correlation Between S&P 500 and Gold Spot Gold’s old reputation as a crisis hedge is looking dated. The metal is increasingly trading like a risk asset, tracking U.S. equities as a declining dollar and heavy central-bank demand reshape its place in global markets. Image: Bloomberg
Rolling 90-Day Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. IG Credit Spreads Credit and equities are back in sync: the 90‑day correlation between U.S. IG credit spreads and the S&P 500 has spiked, a sign that macro forces and market mood now bind the two tighter than before. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equities – 10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Despite historically high valuations that could cap gains, Goldman Sachs forecasts robust global equity returns, led by Emerging Markets and Asia, which are expected to deliver the strongest growth over the next 10 years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Gold CTAs have cut back on gold, but they’re still net long — the bulls aren’t giving up yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Returns It’s not a bubble—at least not yet. But with AI money flooding in and U.S. companies rethinking how they raise and spend cash, investors can’t afford to ignore valuations, balance sheets, or results. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio By the Shiller CAPE’s measure, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere — the kind that’s thrilled investors on the way up, and burned them on the way down. It’s a level that has often meant thinner returns and rising risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research