Category: Blog

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. equities have surged to record highs, even as the dollar remains under pressure amid mixed economic signals and policy shifts. Image: Bloomberg

Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Returns Since the March–April correction, most of the gains have come from the largest stocks, which is clear from the difference between equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted S&P 500 indexes. Image: Real Investment Advice

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Despite stretched valuations by historical standards, the S&P 500 is trading near fair value, and earnings growth is set to underpin further upside as the economy gains momentum into next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura

Equity Sector Flows Money keeps flowing into industrials and financials, while energy and health care still see pronounced outflows. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies ranking in the 92nd percentile continue to show a strong bullish bias in equities, driven by robust technical momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with forecasts pointing to continued growth in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank