Category: Blog

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium (Using Breakevens) The S&P 500 equity risk premium remains much lower than it was in March 2020. Is a drawdown on the horizon? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Value Cumulative Returns – U.S. Stock Market Value has made a strong comeback in recent months. Image: Financial Times

Household Debt Outstanding as a Percentage of Annual GDP Household debt to GDP ratios decreased in the recent years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Asset Classes – Expected Returns vs. Risk Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 is the least attractive asset over the next 6-12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 – 10-Year Annualized Real Returns Returns tend to be cyclical. Buying the S&P 500 at high valuations has led to poor future returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Value Fund Flows Inflows into value funds are very strong. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Return – Equity Market Trends Around U.S. Capital Gains Tax Rate Hikes Equity prices tend to decline around U.S. capital gains tax hikes, but are likely to be short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Existing Home Sales Median Price U.S. existing home prices rise as tight supply pushes prices higher. Image: Piper Sandler

Median Forward S&P 500 Return Based on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the median forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

VIX vs. Liquidity (S&P 500 Futures Depth) Should investors expect the market depth to increase, as VIX and liquidity are highly negatively correlated? Image: J.P. Morgan

Value vs. Growth – Active Managers’ Relative Exposure in Low P/FCF vs. High Long-Term Growth Despite the rally in Value, active managers are still ~30% underweight Value vs. Growth. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy