Category: Blog

Consolidated Equity Positioning A moderate overweight in consolidated equity positioning—currently at the 66th percentile—can help sustain the stock market’s positive momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are showing bearish sentiment, with the Insider Transactions Ratio slipping back into bearish territory. Image: Barron’s

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic and discretionary positioning are diverging: systematic strategies remain bullish on equities driven by technical momentum, while discretionary investors stay caution amid economic and geopolitical concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects that U.S. real GDP will expand at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3 2025, suggesting steady and robust economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks stands at the 42nd percentile, indicating potential for further growth and increased investor interest. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Announced Share Buybacks in the U.S. The ongoing pipeline of stock repurchase programs demonstrates strong confidence among executives and continues to underpin the U.S. stock market through 2025 and beyond. Image: Bloomberg

Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology, industrial, and financial sectors have attracted substantial inflows over the past year, the energy and health care sectors have experienced notable outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates While earnings projections for 2026 are very optimistic, it is prudent to view them as a stretch compared to historical norms, with significant risk if actual earnings fall short. Image: Real Investment Advice

New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit its nineteenth record high of 2025, underscoring persistent market optimism. The index has gained 10.55% so far this year, driven by robust corporate earnings and steady economic data. Image: Carson Investment Research

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Historically, the S&P 500 struggles in September, with higher volatility and an average return of -0.7% since 1964. The index has risen in only 46% of Septembers, making it one of the weakest months of the year. Image: Topdown Charts