Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite is surging among U.S. equity fund managers, who are betting on robust returns, as optimism builds around rate cuts, economic momentum, and earnings strength. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks S&P 500 buyback announcements have cooled lately, but most analysts see it as a breather after record highs rather than the start of something more serious. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 S&P 500 performance tends to move in step with interest rate swings. When rate uncertainty builds, investors recalibrate risk, and volatility often follows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.24% from 2.22% a week earlier, a small move that keeps the soft-but-steady growth story intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Several sectors of the S&P 500 still trade at rich valuations compared with their historical averages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 77.69, the S&P 500’s technical picture still tilts bullish. A brief pause into Christmas wouldn’t surprise anyone, but momentum still favors the bulls heading into the year-end rally. Image: Real Investment Advice
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite stays intact, and the tone is starting to turn risk-on again, fueled by strong global equity flows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Historically, sharp drops in consumer sentiment have tended to precede strong stock market rallies, often turning pessimism into a springboard for future gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management