Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Once broad-based, the S&P 500 now dances to the tune of its top ten giants, which control over 40% of the index’s value, well beyond what earnings alone would justify—a setup that magnifies volatility and narrows diversification. Image: Goldman…
Cumulative Equity Sector Fund Flows Equity funds have continued to attract solid inflows in 2025, driven by strong demand for U.S. and Chinese markets. The buying has been selective, with money gravitating toward Technology, Financials, Materials, and Industrials. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows In 2025, with markets navigating economic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and stubbornly high rates, investors have flocked to the safety of bonds and money market funds, shunning riskier equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E With the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index trading at just 17x forward earnings versus 23x for the headline benchmark, the gap speaks to more than valuation—it underscores investors’ enduring faith in the mega-cap leaders driving the rally. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 24.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation Low realized correlations across S&P 500 stocks signal a more discerning market, where sector narratives and company fundamentals are reclaiming the spotlight. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI ACWI Index and Best Earnings-Per-Share With stocks priced for perfection and earnings forecasts at record highs, even a mild miss could put the market’s rally on the ropes. Image: Bloomberg
Global Central Bank Gold Reserves A striking 95% of reserve managers expect central banks to boost their gold holdings within 12 months, up from 81% a year ago—clear evidence of a sustained rush into the yellow metal. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 Markets may be rallying, but the Sentiment/VIX Composite Index and broader positioning data show investors are still hedging their bets—more guarded than convinced about the rally’s staying power. Image: Real Investment Advice
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 0.9% in September. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Margin Debt as % of U.S. Nominal GDP NYSE margin debt exceeding $1.1 trillion, near record highs relative to nominal GDP, signals rapid investor re-leveraging and heightened volatility risk, though not necessarily implying an imminent market crash. Image: Deutsche Bank