Category: Blog

Valuation – 12-Month Forward STOXX Europe 600 PE European stocks look less expensive than at the beginning of this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Outstanding Short Interest Elevated short interest in both ETFs and single stocks generally signals increased bearish sentiment or heightened hedging activity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg

% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history shows that it’s uncommon for this outperformance to last. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index and Moving Average Crossover Signal Using moving average crossovers-particularly on a weekly basis-can be a valuable tool for investors looking to manage risk in their equity portfolios. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 YTD Return The underperformance of the Magnificent Seven in 2025 signals a meaningful change in market dynamics, with investors rotating toward other sectors and a more balanced market leadership emerging. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Developed Market Gold ETF After a sustained period of outflows, developed market gold ETFs saw a return to positive investment flows in 2025, though inflows are still modest relative to historical highs. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies have averaged a 32% gain one year later, with positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research

Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs anticipates a more diversified earnings landscape for the S&P 500, with the dominance of the Magnificent Seven tech giants moderating as other companies pick up the pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research