S&P 500 Average Return After a Down Day The year 2025 stands out for the S&P 500, especially because of its resilience following daily declines. Since January, it has rebounded by an average of 0.32% the day after a drop, underscoring its strong ability to recover quickly. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 usually rallies, delivering a median return of 2.0% in the first four weeks, fueled by positive earnings surprises that strengthen investor confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Number of Days Above 20-Day Moving Average While the S&P 500’s extended period above its 20-day moving average signals strong momentum, historical patterns and technical indicators point to a potential pullback or consolidation ahead. Image: SubuTrade
Distribution of Strategist Forecats for S&P 500 Year-End 2025 Index Level Goldman Sachs’ 6600 year-end target for the S&P 500 reflects a confident view on the market’s trajectory, driven by expected Fed easing and strong large-cap fundamentals, positioning it near the top of Wall Street forecasts for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 stocks continue to trade at a premium compared to the rest of the S&P 500. However, this premium has narrowed in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Despite trade-related uncertainties, Wall Street’s leading firms remain confident in the S&P 500’s further gains through 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, operational resilience, and accommodative monetary policy prospects. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and NAAIM Index Above 97 Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities near market tops and selling near market bottoms. Last week, their equity allocation surged to 99.30, a level typically seen near short-term market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After New All-Time Highs Since 1990, despite periods of volatility, the S&P 500 has typically continued rising after new all-time highs, with a median 12-month gain of 13.5% and positive returns more than 82% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Market Sentiment – Levkovich Index The Levkovich Index, or Panic/Euphoria Model, is currently at “euphoria,” indicating strong investor optimism. This often serves as a contrarian signal that equities may face downward pressure over the next 12 months. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 Performance After a >10% Quarter Since 1950, when a quarter’s return exceeds 10%, the next quarter typically performs better than average—gaining 4.7% on average compared to the overall average of 2.3%, and posting gains 85% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average The DXY dollar’s current position well below its 200-day moving average marks a rare bearish phase, the likes of which have not been seen in two decades, signaling a challenging environment for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Image: Bloomberg