Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Returns After Eight Month Win Streaks An eighth straight winning month in sight? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has done that only ten times, and almost never lost steam afterward. Nine out of ten rallies kept climbing over the next six months, with a median gain of 7.8%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple – Top 5 Largest Stocks vs. Other 495 Stocks Valuations aren’t as stretched as in past bubbles. The U.S. market looks more balanced, with the top five stocks trading at a moderate premium, while the rest of the market trades at valuations near their highest since 2000.…
Global Quarterly Tech Capex Growth Tech investment has surged in recent years, but the underlying rhythm hasn’t changed: global tech capex has grown 14.6% annually since 2013, right in line with its decade‑long trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index vs. S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index In 2025, the traditional, market‑cap‑weighted S&P 500 has strongly outperformed its equal‑weighted counterpart because a small group of very large, tech‑centric stocks has driven most of the gains. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 Total Return Index vs. Spot Gold vs. Spot Silver U.S. stocks are rising, but metals are shining brighter. Gold, and even more so silver, have surged since the precious-metals move accelerated, leaving equities lagging as investors tilt toward hard assets. Image: Bloomberg
Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return of S&P 500 over Different Periods Since 2009, S&P 500 investors enjoyed annualized real returns about 50% above the 1900+ historic average, fueled by low rates, QE, and post-crisis recovery. With those supports behind us, forward returns may revert toward historic norms. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market Capitalization – The Smartphone Revolution The iPhone’s 2007 launch ignited a smartphone revolution that sent the market capitalizations of U.S. giants like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta skyrocketing. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours The frenzy in S&P 500 options expiring within 24 hours shows no sign of cooling, now making up more than 62% of total volume and amplifying short-term volatility through fast-turn bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research