Category: Blog

2020 Inflows: Equities, Bonds, Cash and Gold There is still a lot of cash on the sideline, which could be put to work in the market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Inflation – M2 Money Supply and Consumer Price Index M2 money supply growth could be the key to unlocking inflation in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Inflows as % of Assets Under Management (AUM) Cash, gold and tech are the largest inflows this year, amid the coronavirus pandemic. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

IPO and Secondary Offerings Net S&P 500 Buybacks This is the first time since 2009 that equity issuance is higher than S&P 500 buybacks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Companies – Record Balance Sheet Cash U.S. companies have accumulated record amounts of cash on their balance sheets to absorb the shock of the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown measures. Image: J.P. Morgan US Equity Strategy & Global Quantitative Research

CTAs’ Net Position in Russell 2000 Futures vs. Russell 2000 CTAs may be slightly walking back their net long position in Russell 2000 futures. Image: Nomura

IPO ETF – IPO U.S. Equity IPO ETFs are skyrocketing this year. Are investors on the cusp of the next dot-com bubble? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Excess Liquidity and S&P 500 Performance Is the relationship between excess liquidity and S&P 500 performance fading? Image: Deutsche Bank

DXY U.S. Dollar Index and WTI Crude Oil Price (Leading Indicator) The U.S. dollar tends to lead oil prices by 6 months. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Equity Valuations – MSCI 12-Month Forward P/E Ratios Indian equity valuations are high. Are investors ignoring fundamentals? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Valuation – Real 10-Year Yield vs. S&P 500 PE on Trailing Operating EPS The S&P 500 P/E tends to rise when the real 10-year yield declines. A S&P 500 P/E of 26x and 2021 EPS of $148 suggest ~3,800 for the S&P 500. Image: Stifel