Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate When wage growth lags behind the fed funds rate, it is interpreted as a sign that monetary policy is restrictive, as borrowing costs exceed the pace of income growth, potentially dampening consumer spending and economic activity. Image: Yahoo Finance
Buyback Announcements In 2025, U.S. companies are announcing record levels of share buybacks, aiming to return cash to shareholders, stabilize stock prices, and enhance EPS as they navigate economic and policy uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Profit Margins within S&P 500 Names Profit margins in the S&P 500 are elevated. As AI adoption accelerates, it is likely to have a transformative impact on profit margins across industries, with the tech sector leading this trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and the labor market remains robust. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at low levels, investors face a difficult landscape in which the risks of equity investments may not be sufficiently rewarded. Image: BCA Research
U.S. CEO Confidence Index The sharp decline in U.S. CEO optimism in 2025 is largely attributed to new tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, inflation, and unpredictable government actions, reversing the post-election optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls Although many S&P 500 companies discuss AI during their earnings calls, suggesting a major technological shift, its adoption and impact have yet to become widespread across all major corporations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bullish Percent Index vs. S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s rally has reversed extreme bearish sentiment, pushing the number of stocks on bullish buy signals toward 70% and confirming a significant, broad-based improvement in market breadth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average S&P 500 Performance During Corrections In bear markets, sharp rallies are common but rarely signal a true bottom, as the primary downtrend tends to reassert itself afterward. Many investors believe the direction of U.S. stocks in 2025 remains uncertain. Image: Bloomberg
Median Non-Farm Payrolls in the 12 Months Before and After the Start of a U.S. Recession Consistently adding more than 100,000 payroll jobs each month is considered a vital cushion against recession worries. Continued growth at this pace could bolster confidence in the U.S. economy’s direction over the next few months. Image: Deutsche Bank
Bear Market Rallies Since 1980, global bear market rallies have averaged 44 days with 14% gains. Prices have already rebounded 18% from the April 7 low. For a sustained recovery, a stronger economic outlook and supportive policies are needed. Image: Bloomberg