S&P 500 and NAAIM Index Above 97 Active managers have a habit of chasing rallies and selling near lows. Last week, their equity exposure climbed to 97.13, a level usually seen around short-term market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth The seven biggest S&P 500 stocks are set to drive 46% of the index’s EPS growth in 2026, down slightly from a 50% share this year as the rest of the market shows signs of catching up. Image: Credit Suisse Research
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Based on Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E The S&P 500’s earnings yield, based on Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E, sits near century lows. But if history is any guide, valuations can defy gravity for years. Just remember the late ’90s. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin Annual Returns Bitcoin is sliding toward a year of losses, and this one comes without the usual chaos. No fraud, no implosion, just a quieter, more mature market learning that pain isn’t always tied to panic. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors back to bullion. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Earnings Growth The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to narrow, paving the way for a broader, more balanced earnings landscape across the index in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image: Bloomberg
Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500 underperformance in the following one to three months. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls never seem to tire of. Image: Carson Investment Research