Category: Blog

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 3.9%. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Performance After Green in Both May and June Since 1988, when the S&P 500 gains in both May and June—a rare bullish sign—the rest of the year rose 15 of 16 times, averaging 8.8% gains, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment for the year’s second half. Image: Carson Investment Research

Risk-Adjusted Returns Across U.S. Equity Indices The S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been marked by relatively low returns and high volatility, leading to weak risk-adjusted outcomes and signaling a challenging environment for investors seeking favorable risk-reward balances. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums The low U.S. equity risk premium reflects a market where investors earn little to no additional expected return for taking on the higher risk of stocks compared to bonds. As a result, equity investing becomes more challenging. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Monthly Flow of G4 Central Bank Asset Purchases Global central banks are continuing to reduce their asset holdings at a robust pace, primarily through balance sheet runoff and measured non-reinvestment of maturing securities. Image: Deutsche Bank

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June Historically, the U.S. stock market often weakens—and even posts negative returns—in the latter half of June. Could this time be different? Image: Carson Investment Research

CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and equity impacts remain limited. Image: Bloomberg

WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns. Image: Yahoo Finance

Concentration – Top 10, Top 3 and Top 1 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) China has one of the lowest market capitalization concentrations worldwide, with its top ten companies comprising only 17% of total market cap—much less than the US’s 34%—indicating greater growth potential in China. Image: Goldman Sachs…