S&P 500 Index Returns and Santa Claus Rally Santa Claus skipped Wall Street this year, and for the bulls, that’s often a warning the new year may bring choppier trading. Will this time be any different? Image: Carson Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains elevated, climbing to 2.7%. The rise, though, appears driven more by hedging activity than by outright fear or speculative panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin Price and Moving Averages Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-day moving average after sharp drops like the one in early October 2025 typically signals the start of a potential reversal or at least a move toward steadier ground. Image: Bloomberg
Cash to Total Assets S&P 500 and S&P 500 Ex-Financials The corporate cash cushion is thinning. S&P 500 firms have slashed their reserves from pandemic peaks, redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure, growth projects, and buybacks in a world where cash no longer comes cheap. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Global Quantitative Research
Share of S&P 500 Annual Return Contributed by the 10 Largest Stocks In 2025, just 10 stocks generated more than half of the S&P 500’s gains, a reminder that the market’s engine is running on a few powerful cylinders. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps in the 1930s and 1960s. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts spanning a wide range. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand runs ahead of supply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the top of its historical range, flashing an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts