Category: Blog

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500 index is down 2.43% year-to-date, leaving bulls wondering if the bull market has a return policy. Meanwhile, bears seem to be having a bull-icious time! Happy Friday, Everyone!  😎

Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate Unlike the recent past, when inflation was high and interest rates were near zero, the Fed and ECB now have greater flexibility to cut rates if economic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Performance After Five Consecutive Days of a 1% Daily Move and All Above the 200-Day MA Historically, when the S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of 1% moves while remaining above its 200-day MA, it has performed well over the following six months, averaging an 11.0% gain and rising 91.7% of the…

S&P 500 Annual Return vs. Annual Return Ex-10 Best Days The “rule of 10 best days” highlights the risks of market timing. Since 2015, excluding the 10 best trading days each year would have turned the S&P 500’s positive returns into significant losses. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day President Trump’s policies are “Making Volatility Great Again,” as bulls navigate turbulent markets while bears rejoice! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research

Changes in Financial Conditions Since Trump’s Inauguration The “Trump trade,” as initially advertised, was characterized by expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar, rising equities, higher yields, and narrower credit spreads—the opposite of current market conditions. Image: Deutsche Bank

Conference Board CEO Confidence CEO optimism is closely tied to equity market performance, with market declines often precipitating a drop in executive confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank

Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators While sentiment and positioning were highly bullish at the end of 2024, recent setbacks have emerged. The resurgence of “Trumponomics” has increased volatility, prompting investors to adopt more defensive strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold / U.S. Average Worker’s Wage Despite a bullish outlook fueled by declining interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases, gold is seen as expensive relative to the average wage of a U.S. worker. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Wall Street bears are convinced the bull market is just a mirage, while bulls are blissfully ignoring any mention of risk, claiming they have a temporary, but highly enjoyable, case of selective hearing! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎