High Yield Spreads – Implied Default Ratio vs. Moody’s Forecast High-yield spreads suggest a severe recession similar to the global financial crisis. Default ratio at 16.1% (12m). Image: Swedbank Research
Cumulative Decline in U.S. Real GDP during Previous Recessions Bank of America sees a -10.4% cumulative decline in U.S. real GDP this year. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Bear Market The percentage of stocks hitting 52-week lows and the 3-month median daily correlation, could suggest a low. Image: Truist
Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS during 11 Recessions Since 1947 Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States (base case scenario). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Top 15 Worst First Quarters for the Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its worst first quarter ever. Historically, the median annual loss was 3.5%. Image: CNBC
Bear Market – Post-Waterfall Decline Environment in Dow Jones Industrial Average After waterfalls, retests are common. The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks low 69% of time, by median of 2.4% and within a median of two months. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and U.S. GDP (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is at the lowest level since 2009 and tends to lead U.S. GDP by 5 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Index Bear Market Bounces Since 1950, the average max bounce during 9 bear markets has been +14.5%. Image: LPL Research
Debt and Deficits in Euro Area and U.S. Debt and deficits in the euro area and in the United States are expected to increase significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Real Yield on U.S. Corporate Bond IG & HY vs. Equity Earnings Yield Real yields on U.S. corporate bonds (IG & HY) exceed equity earnings yield Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Flow of Funds Annual U.S. Treasury Purchases by Sector Money market mutual funds and the Fed will buy the vast majority of new Treasury supply in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research