Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of 4.9% going back to 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central banks deeper into bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors underwater in real terms over the next ten years. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope for momentum into the fourth quarter. Image: Carson Investment Research
Approximate Lifespan of Historical Bubbles, from Run-Up to Peak Financial bubbles rarely pop overnight. They typically build for years, fueled by speculative mania, until late-arriving investors rush in at the top—only to see their gains wiped out when the bubble bursts. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Government Shutdowns vs. the S&P 500 For all the political drama, U.S. markets have historically treated government shutdowns as little more than noise, with brief volatility giving way to quick rebounds. Image: Bloomberg
Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 P/E Ratio and Fed Chair Warnings on Stock Valuations Despite Powell acknowledging that U.S. equity prices look stretched, history suggests valuations alone rarely halt a rally—at least not in the short run. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Right now, the 14-week RSI is nearing 70. When it previously climbed above 80, the S&P 500 saw an average 27% decline with an RSI lead time of 37 weeks. In other words, bull markets can stay overbought far longer than many expect. Image: Real Investment Advice