U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar and Reserve Status Could the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency? Historically, leading reserve currencies have held their status for about a hundred years. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Ex. Financials – Net Leverage and Interest Coverage Since the Global Financial Crisis, there has been a sharp increase in the median S&P 500 stock’s leverage ratio, a trend that could have substantial effects on market risk and volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 12-Month Forward STOXX Europe 600 PE European stocks look less expensive than at the beginning of this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Outstanding Short Interest Elevated short interest in both ETFs and single stocks generally signals increased bearish sentiment or heightened hedging activity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history shows that it’s uncommon for this outperformance to last. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index and Moving Average Crossover Signal Using moving average crossovers-particularly on a weekly basis-can be a valuable tool for investors looking to manage risk in their equity portfolios. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 YTD Return The underperformance of the Magnificent Seven in 2025 signals a meaningful change in market dynamics, with investors rotating toward other sectors and a more balanced market leadership emerging. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research