Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change Margin debt on the NYSE has surged past $1.1 trillion, up nearly 40% YoY, marking one of the fastest spikes on record. Such rapid increases in borrowing, outpacing overall market gains, have often preceded market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2% of an all‑time high, the index has risen every time in the next 12 months, averaging a 14.2% gain Image:…
U.S. Household Equity Ownership vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. households have never been this heavily invested in stocks. The higher the concentration, the greater the risk that a market pullback hits both confidence and consumption, reversing wealth effects. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Seven Month Win Streaks Seven winning months in a row? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has pulled that off 16 times and history says momentum like this rarely cools: nine out of ten times, the rally kept rolling over the next 6 months, posting an average 7% gain. Image: Carson Investment…
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Wealth and Spending by Income Quintile in the U.S. The middle 60% of Americans control just 26% of the nation’s wealth but account for more than half of all spending. Whether they can keep it up depends on how long the labor market stays strong. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 2026 Target Oppenheimer Asset Management expects the S&P 500 to surge 18% next year, lifting the index to 8,100 by end-2026 as solid growth, resilient earnings, and looser monetary policy keep the rally intact. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 2026 Price Target Major banks see the S&P 500 averaging 7,500 by the end of 2026, roughly 10% above current levels. Deutsche Bank is the most bullish, calling for 8,000 as earnings broaden beyond tech leaders and AI momentum holds. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin Bitcoin usually tracks risk assets like equities, but in 2025 it broke away from the U.S. stock rally, surprising traders who expected a lift from President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and growing institutional interest. Image: Bloomberg