S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 -10% Or More Annual Declines Are Rare Double-digit declines in the S&P 500 during a calendar year are rare, but they never come out of nowhere. Since 1928, they’ve occurred only twelve times, and each drop came with its own story. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and DXY Weighted 2-Year Rate Differential The U.S. dollar’s recent gains have been surprisingly modest, given the backdrop. In fact, rate differentials still argue for a softer greenback. Image: TS Lombard
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather than the start of a deep bear market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 8.3% on average over the…
Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Rising Middle East tensions and a jump in energy prices have pushed speculators back into the U.S. dollar, marking their first net-long position of the year. No surprise there: the greenback usually shines when global risks rise. Image: Bloomberg
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice