Housing – U.S. Existing Home Sales and 30-Year Mortgage Rate This chart shows the correlation between U.S. existing home sales and the 30-year mortgage rate (inverted), and suggests further improvements in sales. Image : Piper Sandler Companies
S&P 500 and Past Global Recoveries This chart compares the S&P 500’s recent rally with past global recoveries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
China-US Trade as % of Chinese GDP The downtrend in China-US trade will be hard to reverse, even with the “phase one” trade deal. Image: Financial Times
Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…
Corporate Bonds: IG Downgrade to HY and BBB Share of U.S. IG Market This chart highlights the resilience of BBB-rated bonds. BofA believes that there is little risk that IG ratings will fall to junk status in the next recession. Image: BofA Global Research
Small Caps: Russell 2000 vs. MSCI USA Select Strong Balance Sheet Index Chart suggesting that it makes sense to avoid balance sheet risk in U.S. small caps. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Earnings vs. Valuation Chart suggesting that changes in the P/E tend to mirror changes in earnings. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator The U.S. real GDP leading indicator suggests an improvement in the second half of 2020 (R² = 0.74). Image: KKR Global Macro
World Epidemics and Global Stock Market Performance Chart showing that the impact of past world pandemics has not been significant on the global stock market. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. National Housing Expansion Length The current recovery in housing is in its 9th year. How long will it last? Image: John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Commercial and Industrial Loans of U.S. Banks as % of GDP vs. Deliquency Rate Is the end of the U.S. credit cycle near? The delinquency rate remains low, while U.S. business loans are close to previous highs. Image: Pavilion Global Markets