Category: Blog

U.S. Real Interest Rates and Recessions Currently, U.S. real interest rates are negative. In recent history, real interest rates were at least above 1.8% (orange line) before a recession.

Cumulative Weekly Fund Flows In terms of fund flows, this chart highlights the decade of fixed income. Image: BofA Global Research

Big-Data Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle and NBER Recession Chart showing that the short-sample indicator improved and moved into the “Boom” regime last November. Image: BofA Global Research

Dow Jones Annual Change with All Major Conflicts since WWI Chart showing how the Dow Jones has behaved in times of conflict. The best annual return took place during WWI. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

The Rise of Passive Investing – Index Funds and ETFs Passive investments continue to grow. Index funds smash through the $10tn-in-assets mark. Image: Financial Times

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (All History) Chart suggesting that the U.S. non-manufacturing sector is slowly improving. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Presidential Election Years and S&P 500 Index Average Cumulative Returns This chart suggests that since 1932, volatility during primaries can produce strong returns. Image: Capital Group

U.S. Seaborne Imports of Crude Oil by Origin The United States is also less dependent on foreign oil supply than it was a decade ago. Image: Financial Times

World Trade and Copper Chart suggesting that any improvement in world trade should benefit copper. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Dollar and Trump Job Approval Poll Average (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the U.S. dollar could rise, if it continues to track Trump’s approval rating. Image: Jeffrey Kleintop

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that ISM indices imply a slowdown rather than a recession. Image: BofA Global Research