NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The NFIB Small Business Survey’s annual rate of change closely mirrors U.S. small-cap stock performance, making the NFIB index a key economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings of Tech Companies While U.S. tech stocks benefit from a wave of strong performance fueled by both hype and solid earnings fundamentals, non-tech stocks continue to experience prolonged earnings stagnation. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end. Image: The Daily Chartbook
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Investing on Any Day vs. Investing at New High Despite widespread investor hesitation to buy at all-time highs, data suggest that doing so generally leads to better future returns compared to investing on random days. Image: Yahoo Finance
Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Equity positioning aligns with S&P 500 Q2 2025 earnings growth and suggests further upside—if robust and resilient earnings continue and broaden across sectors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, crypto funds experienced substancial outflows, partly due to profit-taking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Money market funds continue to attract strong investor interest, providing safe and profitable short-term opportunities in the current high-interest-rate environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Alternating Higher and Lower Days in a Row Over seven days in August, the S&P 500’s alternating higher and lower closes signal a choppy trading environment, consistent with usual seasonal patterns amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Image: Carson Investment Research