Category: Blog

U.S. Monthly Intervention by Currency As the chart shows, frequent interventions in the foreign exchange market were fairly common prior to 1995. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Dollar and Percentage of Developed Countries with Policy Rates below U.S. The chart suggests that the percentage of developed countries with policy rates below U.S., is a support for the U.S. dollar. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Yield Curves Inversions: 100-Year View This chart shows that over the past 100 years, some recessions have occurred without yield curve inversion. The yield curve is one recession indicator among many others. Image: Macrobond

Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI Global Auto Index This chart shows the pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI Global Auto Index (YoY change). Image: J.P. Morgan

Approval Rating Ahead of November Re-Election Bid President Donald Trump’s approval rating is lower than a president should be if he wants to be reelected. Image: J.P. Morgan

Fed Balance Sheet Projection According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: UBS

Demographics – IMF World Gross National Savings as a Percent of GDP Aging populations may well boost savings. This chart is a very good illustration. Image: Bianco Research

Russell 2000 Trailing EV/EBITDA Multiples vs. Private Equity EBITDA Multiples This chart shows that private equity multiples are currently higher than public equity multiples. Image: Strategas

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Fed Insurance Cut vs. Fed Recession Cut In recent history, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and the Fed cut rates, a recession occurred. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. House Prices Lead Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. house prices lead real personal consumption expenditure by 6 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond