Category: Blog

Weaker Wage Growth in the Current Expansion Interesting chart showing that wage growth is much weaker than it was in the late 1990s. Image: Economic Policy Institute

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Current Conditions Index This index has been negative year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. This is rare outside of recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) and Tariffs Trade-sensitive Chinese yuan could move lower with tariffs headlines. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Fears of a German Recession Are Rising A recession in Germany could mean economic damage across the region. Image: The Economist

Zombie Companies – U.S. Zombie Stocks by Sectors This chart shows the rise of zombie stocks in the health care and technology sectors after 2000. Image: FactorResearch

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Leads Global GDP This chart suggests that the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) leads Global GDP by 6 months. Image: Ken Fisher

Volatility – Percentage of Days the S&P 500 Index Rose or Fell by More than 1% This chart shows that volatility has risen last year and year-to-date, and is expected to continue through 2020. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Share Buybacks by Month Excluding 2008, August and November are generally the busiest months for buyback executions in the past decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…

Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER