Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Leads Real U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey leads real U.S. GDP growth by 3 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Investor Sentiment – NAAIM Exposure Index and S&P 500 NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 56.15% (median exposure at 70%). NAAIM members’ optimism was short-lived. Image: Willie Delwiche, Baird
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Image: Leonard Kiefer
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM, from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy Manufacturing accounts for only 10% of U.S. GDP, but 25% to 45% of the market response. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Corporate Profits, Capital Expenditures, Dividends and Buybacks What would happen if U.S. companies reinvested instead of buying their own shares and paying dividends? Image: Financial Times
U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854 This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. economic cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 vs. the Rest of the World Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has outperformed the rest of the world by 130%. Image: Financial Times
Developed Country Policy Rates Above the United States Look for the mistake: the number of countries with a policy rate above the U.S. is zero. Image: Bianco Research