Category: Blog

Small Caps Debt-to-Equity Exceeds Large Caps The debt-to-equity ratio of small caps exceeds large caps for the first time. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Excess Liquidity Leads U.S. PMI This chart suggests that U.S. excess liquidity leads U.S. PMI by 12 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Exane BNP Paribas

Global Manufacturing PMI This chart could suggest that the worst is over for global manufacturing after PMI ended 15 consecutive months of decline. Image: Charles Schwab

Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Image: howmuch.net

The Economic Impact of Hurricanes This chart shows the most devasting hurricanes since 1980. Image: Statista

U.S. Nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 Volatility This chart shows that the S&P 500 volatility remains high in a context of slower macroeconomic cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should turn higher. Image: Macrobond, SEB Strategy Research

Trade War – Probability of a US-China Trade Deal The market-implied probability of a US-China trade deal rises to only 19%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Stocks with High China Sales and China Stocks with High U.S. Sales US-China trade war affects the relative performance of U.S. and China stocks vs. local market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Bond Fund Flows Over the past 3 months, investors have injected $160bn into bond funds, fearing a global recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Allocation to Cash and Recession Probability This chart shows the correlation between allocation to cash and the NY Fed 12-month ahead recession probability indicator. Image: Barclays Research