Category: Blog

U.S. Unemployment Breadth and S&P 500 Year-over-year, the U.S. unemployment rate is rising in 30% of U.S. states, up from 18% in December 2018. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Median Developed Market Debt to GDP The total debt to gross domestic product is going back to 1865 for 12 developed countries. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 After Official Presidential Impeachment Inquiry Chart showing that two presidential impeachment inquiries had two different results. Image: Sentimentrader

September S&P 500 Return vs. October S&P 500 Return Does an up September for stocks mean an up October? It is an old myth and there’s no real correlation (R = 0.03). Image: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.

S&P 500 Buybacks Index The S&P 500 Buyback Index is down on a YoY basis. As a reminder, buybacks are the source of the rally in the stock market since 2009. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Image: Irrelevant Investor LLC

Excess Reserves of U.S. Depository Institutions Lead the U.S. Dollar The chart suggests that excess reserves of U.S. depository institutions lead the U.S. dollar by 3 months. Image: Financial Times

No Deal Brexit According to J.P. Morgan, the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains real and stands at 35%. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of Global Recession The probability of a global recession among asset managers is greater than 50%. Image: Financial Times

Ifo Business Expectations Index Lead German GDP Chart suggesting that the Ifo Business Expectations Index leads German GDP by 3 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond