Category: Blog

Heat Map of Key Recession Indicators Higher probability of recession than average in red, and lower probability of recession than average in green. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

World – Gross Government Debt as Percentage of GDP A look at gross government debt in 2019. Image: IMF

World Semiconductor Sales Lead Emerging Markets This chart suggests that world semiconductor sales lead the MSCI emerging markets index by 3 months. This is very interesting before investing in emerging market equities. Country weights of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: 33% China, 13.02% Korea, 11.35% Taiwan. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Economic Impacts of the Trade War (Global GDP) This chart shows that the expected economic impacts of the trade war should peak in 2021. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – Price vs. Dividends What happens to dividends when there’s a market collapse? This interesting chart shows that dividends don’t fall as much as stocks. Image: A Wealth of Common Sense

Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle Analysts remain optimistic on 2020. This chart shows the expected earnings growth over the next 12 months. Image: Fidelity Investments

China Real GDP Growth Projection Real GDP growth in China is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. You may also like “Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth.” Image: KKR & Co.

AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Image: Nautilus Research

U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows Active mutual funds exhibit persistent outflows, while inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs continue to rise. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Image: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.