Category: Blog

Stock Market Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average reacts positively to Fed first rate cuts. Image: Ned Davis Research

U.S. Long-term Unemployment Rate Interesting chart showing that the U.S. long-term unemployment rate is back to its long-run average. Image: Ben Casselman

U.S. Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth U.S. unemployment rate at 3.7% and U.S. wage growth at 3.2% in July. U.S. employment growth slows, suggesting the U.S. economy is cooling. Image: Jeroen Blokland

The Equity Risk Premium May Be Bullish The equity risk premium suggests that the S&P 500 is not overvalued, which may be a bullish signal. You may also like our “Stock Market Equity Risk Premium.” Image: Fidelity Management and Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits The chart shows a widening gap between cyclicals and bond proxies. It is clearly a cyclical bear market within a bull market, as during the dotcom bubble. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Cash Use vs. Internet Penetration Around the World Interesting correlation between the use of cash and the internet users as percentage of the population. Image: The Economist

Share of Negative Yielding Bonds in the World Excluding U.S. The chart shows that 43% of global bonds ex-U.S. trade at negative yields. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy? What could a no-deal Brexit mean for developing countries? Main losers if there is a no-deal Brexit: European Union and Turkey. Main winners if there is a no-deal Brexit: China, USA, Japan, Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil. Image: howmuch.net, UNCTAD

Interest Rates for Personal Loans and Credit Cards Diverge Due to the growing spread, many borrowers take out personal loans to pay off credit card debt. Image: Axios

China Credit Impulse Leads World Trade The chart suggests that China credit impulse leads world trade by 12 months. World trade is expected to turn positive in coming months. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond