Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index The chart shows a pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI World Index. Stocks and PMI tend to move together. Image: Charles Schwab
Global Manufacturing PMI Leads Earnings The chart suggests that Global Manufacturing PMI leads earnings by 9 months. Image: Charles Schwab
ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
S&P 500 5% Pullbacks per Year Since 1990, the average number of 5% pullbacks in the S&P 500 Index per year is 3.3. Currently, 2019 has two pullbacks of 5%. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Recession With No Yield Curve Inversion Before 1960, five recessions occurred with no yield curve inversion. The yield curve is one recession indicator among many others. Image: Variant Perception Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield The decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields has been in line with falling ISM PMI. Picture Source: Deutsche Bank
Time in Recession Since 1950, the United States has spent 10% of the time in recession compared to 33% for Argentina. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Active Equity Managers Still Underperform This chart shows the low percentage of active funds that outperformed and how difficult it really is to beat the market over time. You may also like “The Rise of Passive Investing.” Image: PIMCO