World Semiconductor Sales Lead Emerging Markets This chart suggests that world semiconductor sales lead the MSCI emerging markets index by 3 months. This is very interesting before investing in emerging market equities. Country weights of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: 33% China, 13.02% Korea, 11.35% Taiwan. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Economic Impacts of the Trade War (Global GDP) This chart shows that the expected economic impacts of the trade war should peak in 2021. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Price vs. Dividends What happens to dividends when there’s a market collapse? This interesting chart shows that dividends don’t fall as much as stocks. Image: A Wealth of Common Sense
Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle Analysts remain optimistic on 2020. This chart shows the expected earnings growth over the next 12 months. Image: Fidelity Investments
China Real GDP Growth Projection Real GDP growth in China is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. You may also like “Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth.” Image: KKR & Co.
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Image: Nautilus Research
U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows Active mutual funds exhibit persistent outflows, while inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs continue to rise. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS
Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Image: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.
Trump Tweets About the Fed The last trade escalation was also preceded by a flurry tweets from President Trump attacking the Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Highest Sharpe Ratio in Decades Since 1990, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note has produced the largest sharpe ratio. Is it the beginning of the end like past events? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC