Category: Blog

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP The long-term trend in U.S. nominal GDP growth is a good indicator of U.S. nominal bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Payout Ratio Stock buybacks and dividends as a percentage of free cash flow are reaching dangerous levels. Image: MarketWatch

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Chicago PMI Index The Chicago PMI Index fell to 44.4 in July suggesting a weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed When the Tape and Fed lean bullish, as today, the S&P 500 has historically risen at 17.96%/year since 1968 vs. 9.98%/year on a buy-and-hold basis. Image: Ned Davis Research

OCDE World Leading Indicator vs. Global GDP Growth The OCDE world leading indicator suggests a weakness in global GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland

S&P 500 Operating Earnings / NIPA Profits and S&P 500 Returns Interesting chart suggesting that S&P500 2-year returns will be negative, as they were in the late 1990s, when S&P 500 operating earnings rose relative to NIPA profits (thanks to buybacks). Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next 10 years. Image: Movement Capital LLC

ISM Manufacturing Index Surrounding FED Easing Cycles The chart shows that the trend of the ISM Manufacturing Index is quite similar to past cycles before first Fed rate cut. Image: Deutsche Bank

Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

U.S. Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations Interesting chart showing the correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations. Image: Foundation Alpha LLC.