S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity Thinning liquidity in financial markets exacerbates downside risks by increasing the likelihood of abrupt and severe price movements, particularly during economic or geopolitical shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 index down 2.88% YTD, bears are feeling pretty smart. Meanwhile, bulls are like, “Did you see the 3.45% gain over the last 9 trading days? Party time!” Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
What Do You Think the Probability of There Being a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Is? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide indicates an average 43% expectation of a U.S. recession within 12 months, reflecting an uncertain economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
COMEX Copper Price The Trump administration may impose 25% copper import tariffs within weeks, sparking market volatility as traders rush shipments to the U.S., driving copper prices to record highs. Image: The Daily Shot
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day In Wall Street, bears are like the prophets of doom, except instead of a fiery apocalypse, it’s just a market correction! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎
Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue throughout the year. Image: The Daily Shot
Oil, 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields and U.S. Dollar The increasing cohesion in recent years between oil prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar reflects deeper economic linkages and heightened sensitivity to policy and market shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day As the S&P 500 tumbled into a 10% correction, bears are grinning, eager to deport bulls from Wall Street, but bulls remain optimistic, waiting for their visas to be extended! Have a Great Day Everyone! 😎
Foreign Ownership of U.S. Equities by Region European investors, major holders of U.S. stocks, could impact valuations if trade tensions rise, potentially shifting focus to European markets benefiting from fiscal stimulus and increased defense spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E At a forward P/E multiple of 20x, the S&P 500 is trading at the low end of the trading range, which is below its 12-month average of 21x. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research