U.S. Fiscal Stimulus as a Percent of GDP The chart shows the impact of the Trump fiscal stimulus on U.S. economic growth until 2021. You may also like “Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP?“ Image: ClearBridge Investments
S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return The chart shows how market valuation affects future equity returns since 1930. You may also like “Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession?“ Image: Richardson Wealth
Global PMI vs. Global GDP The chart shows the strong correlation between global PMI and global GDP. Global PMI slides to lowest since 2016 and global GDP may have difficulty growing at a rate above 2% in the near future. Image: IHS Markit
Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts After first Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 performance is quite attractive on average when no recession. You may also like “Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut.” Image: Strategas
Global Growth Economy This chart shows the global real GDP growth and the long-term growth momentum. It’s never paid to bet against America. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 vs. Cumulative Fund Flows “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” said Mark Twain. This chart shows the same trend as for the 2016 period. Image: Topdown Charts
Exports as a Share of GDP Interesting chart showing exports as a percentage of GDP and putting U.S. tariffs into perspective. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Total Private Employment Another interesting chart showing that the U.S. job market is still strong for the time being, although it is slowing. The U.S. services jobs (blue lines) appear to be in fairly good shape. Image: Robin Brooks
105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth It is the 105th consecutive month of job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, but is still at historically low levels. Even if there are signs that the U.S. job market is slowing, it is still strong for the time being. Image: Leonard Kiefer
Manufacturing Payrolls vs. ISM PMI Manufacturing payrolls are usually quite volatile, but this interesting chart could suggest a rebound in the ISM PMI. Let’s wait for confirmation in the second half of the year. Image: Hayek and Keynes