Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets Interesting chart showing the average return before and after equity market peaks from 1945 to 2018. You may also like “First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975.” Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years The chart suggests that the U.S. dollar should weaken over time. Image: Strategas
Americans Split on Description of U.S. Economy Today, 43% of Americans think socialism would be a good thing for the U.S.. Image: Gallup
Distribution of Calendar Year Returns: Dow Jones since 1900 The chart shows the calendar year returns on the Dow Jones since 1900, from lowest to highest. It also show that an average return (black bars) does not really exist if we take into account the distribution of calendar year returns since 118 years. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Global PMI vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The chart suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield should be below 1.5%. Image: Pervalle Global
EPS Growth This Cycle This chart shows the exceptional earnings growth in the technology sector over this business cycle. Image: KKR Global Macro
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Image: Pictet…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs. U.S. Nominal GDP The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is highly correlated with the U.S. nominal GDP growth (correlation = 77%). Image: KKR Global Macro
The Longest Economic Expansion in American History The U.S. GDP has grown for 121 consecutive months since the Great Recession. This is officially the longest U.S. economic expansion in history. You may also like “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Image: CNBC
World Manufacturing PMI World manufacturing PMI declined again. This is the longest consecutive decline (14 months). Image: Frederik Ducrozet
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research