Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. You may also like “How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?“ Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Total Outlays (Spending) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that the U.S. federal government spends. Image: Bianco Research
U.S. Total Receipts (Taxes) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that is collected by the U.S. federal government through taxes. Image: Bianco Research
S&P 500 and Hedge Fund Exposure While the S&P 500 is at all-time high, hedge funds increase their exposure to equities (last = 0.52). Image: Sentimentrader
S&P 500 vs. Percentage of Sectors at All-Time Highs Currently, only three sectors are at all-time highs, while 60% of the yield curve is inverted. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
Citi Global Economic Surprise Index and Baltic Dry Index The divergence between the Baltic Dry Index and the Citi Global Economic Surprise Index could suggest that “global economy is likely to bottom soon.” Image: Nomura
U.S. Total Federal Debt to GDP Another interesting chart showing the U.S. total federal debt to GDP since 1791. The current federal debt to GDP is near an all-time high. Image: Bianco Research
The U.S. Federal Deficit This chart shows how the U.S. federal deficit is skyrocketing. This is not a cause for panic… yet. Picture Source: Bianco Research
S&P 500 Index Returns After Fed Rate Cuts Near New Highs The adage of “don’t fight the Fed” may be too simplistic, but usually, the market doesn’t care too much about other things, as long as the Fed stays dovish. Image: LPL Research
Detecting and Measuring Asset Bubbles Detecting and measuring asset bubbles is not always an easy task. This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. households financial assets to GDP and the U.S. federal debt as percentage of GDP.
U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Image: Deutsche Bank