Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history shows that it’s uncommon for this outperformance to last. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index and Moving Average Crossover Signal Using moving average crossovers-particularly on a weekly basis-can be a valuable tool for investors looking to manage risk in their equity portfolios. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies have averaged a 32% gain one year later, with positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 In the absence of recession, short-lived market drawdowns are often followed by strong recoveries, offering attractive returns to investors who stay the course rather than selling in panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and 200-Day Moving Average Regaining the 200-day moving average is a constructive technical signal for the S&P 500 index, as forward returns tend to be positive more often than not. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance After >58% of Components Make a New 20-Day High More good news for bulls: Since 1976, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 18.7% in the 12 months after more than 58% of its components hit a 20-day high, with positive returns every single time. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equity and U.S. vs. Europe Equity and Real Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index The start of 2025 marks a significant pause-and possible reversal-in U.S. equity exceptionalism. Whether this is a temporary pause or a fundamental shift remains to be seen, but the landscape for global investors has changed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Equity Fund Flows U.S. vs. Rest of the World Over the past four weeks, U.S. equity funds have experienced substantial outflows, while equity funds in other regions have recorded inflows, indicating a shift in global investor sentiment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation