Category: Blog

2019 Is Tracking Similar to Prior Waterfall Declines Where PMI was above 50 at end of 19% decline in 60 days. So, it suggests 3,100 for the S&P 500 by year end. Image: Fundstrat

S&P 500 Up at Least +4.5% from Monday Close through Friday Close Last week, the S&P500 was up at least +4.5% from Monday’s close through Friday’s close. History shows it is not bullish. Image: OddStats

The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum

Fear Of Recessions? S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets since 1946 A long-term investor should put downturns in perspective. Image: Charles Schwab

Hedge Fund Industry Outperformance – Negative over Past Decade The chart below shows how it’s hard to beat the market over time. Image: Greenline Partners LLC

BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.”  Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research

Market Smell A Recession As Yield Curve Inverts Quant models and yield curve inversion smell of recession rather than mid-cycle Fed eases. Image: J.P. Morgan

WTI Price and Brent Price vs. Oil Inventory Oil inventories suggest that the price of oil is currently fairly priced. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Brent Price vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs. S&P 500 This chart shows that oil prices are a good indicator of global economic growth and investors are concerned about a global economic slowdown. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Could European Stocks Outperform U.S. Stocks? This chart shows U.S. vs. European stocks at 70-year highs. Keep in mind that investors think that the euro area economy is less resilient than the U.S. economy in the event of a shock. Currently, the euro area economy is more impacted by the global slowdown than the U.S.…

Where Is the Credit Cycle Headed? “Typically, once the horse leaves the barn on the domestic credit cycle, there’s no turning back…” We all know that never ends well. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC